Tuesday, 25 March 2014

The Case For Munenori Kawasaki


 I love Munenori Kawasaki, I will not even try to hide or deny that fact. Sometimes I can be biased in my opinion of Kawasaki, although I do believe he's a better player than other people give him credit for. Before last season, most people outside of Seattle didn't know who Munenori Kawasaki was. The people of Toronto quickly learned to love Kawasaki once he was called up to replace the injured Jose Reyes 10 games into the season. His energy and enthusiasm quickly made him a fan favourite, but it was an infamous post game interview (see link below) that grew his legend, and caused his detractors to label him as nothing more than a team mascot.

The Birth of a Legend 

 Kawasaki's detractors use his "I am Japaneeeeeese!" speech to fuel the fire for their argument that he's nothing more than a team mascot. They also like to point out that Kawasaki doesn't hit for average and has very little to almost no power. But is Kawasaki really THAT MUCH worse than Maicer Izturis, the man who's going to beat out Kawasaki for the middle infielder bench role? If you look at the offensive numbers, they're really not much different. Izturis had a slightly better batting average than Kawasaki, but Kawasaki had a MUCH better on base percentage than Izturis. As far as power goes, Izturis didn't deliver that much more power than Kawasaki, with Izturis slightly edging out Mune in slugging percentage .310 to .308. Let's take a look at how the rest of their standard offensive numbers break down.

Kawasaki: .229 Average / .326 OBP / .308 Slugging / .634 OPS / 1 home run / 24 RBI / 7 stolen bases in 8 attempts for a success rate of 87.5%

Izturis: .236 Average / .288 OBP / .310 Slugging / .597 OPS / 5 home runs / 32 RBI / 1 stolen base in 6 attempts for a success rate of 16.7%

 So as you can see, their offensive numbers are pretty similar, with Izturis having the advantage in games played 107-96. Kawasaki clearly has an advantage over Izturis in 2 areas, stolen bases and on base percentage. I don't know if Kawasaki is actually that much faster than Izturis, or if he just picked his spots better, but he clearly helps the Jays out by getting on base and moving into scoring position better than Izturis does.

 Another comment often made by Kawasaki's detractors is he's not a great fielder; he's ok, but not great. Well, if you look at the numbers, Izturis was just ok in 2013 as well. In the mind of a fan, it is often very easy to blow things out of proportion and make it seem like certain players make more errors than they actually do. A player is rarely as bad as you actually think he is over the course of the season. This is the case with Izturis, as it seemed like he was constantly making errors, when in reality he was probably average. Let's take a look at the defensive numbers for Kawasaki and Izturis.

Kawasaki: .979 fielding percentage / 6 errors / 45 double plays turned / 596.2 innings played / error ratio of 1 error made for every 99 innings played.

Izturis: .971 fielding percentage / 10 errors / 39 double plays turned / 879 innings played / error ratio of 1 error made for every 87.9 (let's round it to 88) innings played.

 Looking at these numbers we can see that, while both are ok/average middle infielders, Kawasaki has a slight edge on Izturis. Kawasaki will go longer than Izturis will without making an error, and he turns more double plays than Izturis. The stat that got me was double plays turned; keep in mind that Kawasaki played 282.1 LESS innings than Izturis, yet still managed to turn 6 more double plays. Unfortunately, I couldn't find the number of double play chances each had, so I was unable to break it down into who had a more successful percentage. Having said that though, it's still impressive that Kawasaki turned more double plays with so much fewer innings played.

 Because both players were relatively similar in offensive numbers, I wanted to look at some of the advanced stats to try and see if anything set them apart in a huge way. Obviously Kawasaki got on base more, but what was he doing when he wasn't getting on base? How effective were either player at advancing base runners? Kawasaki was clearly taking more walks, but who was striking out more? It always seemed like Kawasaki was taking a lot of pitches during his at bats, but who was really the more patient hitter? Here are a few of the advanced stats on both.

Kawasaki: Kawaski had a 5.9 AB/K ratio, struck out 14.2% of the time, walked 11.1% of the time, grounded into double plays 9% of the time, made contact on 88.1% of his swings, saw 4.18 pitches per at bat, and was 10 for 15 in sac bunt attempts (66.7% success).

Izturis: Isturis had a 9.6 AB/K ratio, struck out just 9.5% of the time, walked only 6.8% of the time, grounded into double plays 18% of the time, made contact on 87.6% of his swings, saw 3.50 pitches per at bat, and was 3 for 4 in sac bunt attempts (75% success).

Major League Average : 4.5 AB/K ratio, struck out 19.9% of the time, walked 8.1% of the time, grounded into double plays 11% of the time, made contact on 77.8% swings, saw 3.86 pitches per at bat, and 65% success rate on sac bunts.

 So as you can see, both Izturis and Kawasaki were once again fairly similar in offensive advanced stats categories; and both were - for the most part - above league average in every category. The areas of concern for Izturis would be his low number of walks and his above average percentage of hitting into double plays. From the numbers, it is also clear to see that Kawasaki was the more patient hitter at the plate - which is probably what attributed to his higher on base percentage. What all that means is simply this; if you're trying to choose between bench players late in the game, who are going to give you a better chance at winning, Kawasaki - based on stats - is the better choice.

 As I was looking up all of these numbers, I found another interesting stat that shows that Kawasaki would most likely be the better choice to come off the bench as a replacement late in the game. The following are the slash-lines for Kawasaki and Izturis late in games (innings 7-9).

Kawasaki: .247 average / .326 OBP / .370 Slugging / .696 OPS

Izturis: .244 average / .289 OBP / .291 Slugging / .580 OPS

 What this shows is that Kawasaki clearly gives you a better chance to win late in the game, with a better chance to get an extra base hit and get in scoring position. One final stat I found interesting is that Kawasaki had a productive out rate of 55% compared to Izturis who was at 41%. What this stat represents is how often a batter successfully moves a runner over if they happen to be recorded as out in the process. That means that Kawasaki is much better at advancing runners, which is key if you're trying to add some extra runs late in the game.

 In summation, those who try to undermine Kawasaki's abilities as a baseball player and label him as nothing more than a mascot, are wrong. Although not a likely candidate as an everyday starter, Kawasaki is better than his detractors give him credit for, and a better option than someone like Izturis if you need a replacement late in the game or - god forbid - because of an injury. Mune is MUCH more than a mascot; he is a major league capable ball player who, while he won't hit for power, can play small ball and have good plate approaches that you'd like to see from a bottom of the order guy. He's somebody who can get on base, can move himself into scoring position, can wear down a pitcher in an at bat, and can be productive when he gets out as well. To the detractors all I can say is, let the legend live on!



















 There is one final piece of information I feel I must share and rub in the detractors faces. Ultimately, baseball is about winning games, and you want the players who give you the best chance to win. Well, here is a graph by fellow blogger Sober Jays Fan (follow him on twitter @SoberJaysFan and read his blog here), which shows the Jays winning percentage based on who played in the games; and leading the way - surprise! - was Munenori Kawasaki! The Jays won 49% of the games Kawasaki played in.



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